A222 INCREASING PREVALENCE OF CIRRHOSIS IN ONTARIO OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS: A POPULATION-BASED STUDY
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
It is estimated that 1 in 4 Canadians have chronic liver disease and are at risk of developing cirrhosis. There is a paucity of population-based studies examining the temporal trends in the burden of cirrhosis in North America. To describe secular trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis in Ontario, Canada over the past two decades. This is a retrospective population-based cohort study of patients with cirrhosis in Ontario from 1992–2012 using data from the Institute of Comparative Evaluative Sciences. Follow-up was until December 31, 2015. Individuals with cirrhosis were identified using validated administrative coding algorithms. Data on demographics and survival were defined using linked administrative datasets. Annual adjusted incidence and prevalence rates were calculated standardizing to the 1991 Canadian population stratifying on age and sex. Comparison between rates was done using Poisson regression. A total of 178,152 patients with cirrhosis were included. Median age at diagnosis was 56 years (IQR 45–67 years), 61.6% male with 53% dying over a median follow-up of 5.2 years (IQR 1.5–11.4 years). The adjusted incidence rate did not change over the study period with an average rate of 10.4/10,000 (P = 0.43, figure). However, there was a significant rise in the adjusted prevalence with the rate increasing from 20.7/10,000 in 1992 vs. 120/10,000 in 2012 (P <.001, figure) representing an almost 6-fold increase. The growth in disease burden was higher in men than in women (P <.001) with the majority occurring in males over the age of 55 years and the most dramatic increase in men over the age of 80 years (prevalence rate 56.2/10,000 in 1992 vs. 419.4/10,000 in 2012, P <.001). The burden of cirrhosis in Ontario has increased at a rapid rate over the last two decades likely due to the aging hepatitis C population and the epidemic of fatty liver disease while at the same time is becoming a disease of the elderly men. These results support the urgent need for both a national hepatitis C and liver strategy in attempt to reverse these trends. None
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it