The personalized Alzheimer's disease cortical thickness index predicts likely pathology and clinical progression in mild cognitive impairment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: An Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarker adjusted for age-related brain changes should improve specificity for AD-related pathological burden. METHODS: We calculated a brain-age-adjusted "personalized AD cortical thickness index" (pADi) in mild cognitive impairment patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. We performed receiver operating characteristic analysis for discrimination between patients with and without cerebrospinal fluid evidence of AD and logistic regression in an independent sample to determine if a dichotomized pADi predicted conversion to AD dementia. RESULTS: Receiver operating characteristic area under the curve was 0.69 and 0.72 in the two samples. Three empirical methods identified the same cut-point for pADi in the discovery sample. In the validation sample, 83% of pADi+ mild cognitive impairment patients were cerebrospinal fluid AD biomarker positive. pADi+ mild cognitive impairment patients (n = 63, 38%) were more likely to progress to AD dementia after 1 (odds ratio = 2.9) and 3 (odds ratio = 2.6) years. DISCUSSION: The pADi is a personalized, magnetic resonance imaging-derived AD biomarker that predicts progression to dementia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".