The Future Burden of Colorectal Cancer Among US Blacks and Whites
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although overall colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates in the United States are declining, rates among younger persons (age < 55 years) are increasing, particularly among US whites. We assessed how these trends will impact the future burden (up to 2040) of CRC among US blacks and whites using an age-period-cohort model. Over the last four decades (1973 to 2014), CRC incidence rates for all ages (both sexes) have dropped by 6.6% and 33.9% in US blacks and whites, respectively. Yet we predict an upward turn in CRC cancer incidence rates over the next quarter century, particularly among US whites. The age-standardized rates of CRC were 55.4 and 43.2 per 100 000 among US blacks and whites in 2014, respectively, and are projected to be 49.5 and 43.1 in 2040, respectively. Future interventions are needed to reduce the striking differences in CRC incidence between blacks and whites.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".