Geographic range velocity and its association with phylogeny and life history traits in North American woody plants
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The geographic ranges of taxa change in response to environmental conditions. Yet whether rates of range movement (biotic velocities) are phylogenetically conserved is not well known. Phylogenetic conservatism of biotic velocities could reflect similarities among related lineages in climatic tolerances and dispersal-associated traits. We assess whether late Quaternary biotic velocities were phylogenetically conserved and whether they correlate with climatic tolerances and dispersal-associated traits. We used phylogenetic regression and nonparametric correlation to evaluate associations between biotic velocities, dispersal-associated traits, and climatic tolerances for 28 woody plant genera and subgenera in North America. The velocities with which woody plant taxa shifted their core geographic range limits were positively correlated from time step to time step between 16 and 7 ka. The strength of this correlation weakened after 7 ka as the pace of climate change slowed. Dispersal-associated traits and climatic tolerances were not associated with biotic velocities. Although the biotic velocities of some genera were consistently fast and others consistently slow, biotic velocities were not phylogenetically conserved. The rapid late Quaternary range shifts of plants lacking traits that facilitate frequent long-distance dispersal has long been noted (i.e., Reid's Paradox). Our results are consistent with this paradox and show that it remains robust when phylogenetic information is taken into account. The lack of association between biotic velocities, dispersal-associated traits, and climatic tolerances may reflect several, nonmutually exclusive processes, including rare long-distance dispersal, biotic interactions, and cryptic refugia. Because late Quaternary biotic velocities were decoupled from dispersal-associated traits, trait data for genera and subgenera cannot be used to predict longer-term (millennial-scale) floristic responses to climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".