Thermal regime metrics and quantifying their uncertainty for North American streams
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Understanding and characterizing thermal regimes is gaining popularity, but there has been little assessment of the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty among different thermal metrics. Understanding how the quantity of data influence estimates of metrics and the characterization of thermal regime is critical to resource management. We examine the influence of record length on the uncertainty of estimation for commonly used thermal metrics including mean annual maximum and minimum, timing of the annual maximum and minimum, mean annual temperature range, mean weekly maximum temperature, July maximum, minimum, and range. We selected 19 sites from U.S. Geological Survey hydrometric station network to represent stations with both small and large drainage areas across the ecoregions of the contiguous United States with at least 20 years of daily stream temperature data. We also selected 54 sites from Water Survey of Canada's hydrometric network with at least 7 years of sub‐daily data for the province of Ontario. Randomizing a progressively increasing set of years used to calculate estimates of each metric provided the percentile confidence bands that were compared with various thresholds of acceptable certainty. Bootstrap confidence bands quickly decreased in width with increasing record length and approached an acceptable level at an average of 12 years for daily data metrics. Metrics calculated using the sub‐daily data required approximately 3 years of data. The timing of annual minimum and maximum temperatures required the greatest amount of data to reduce bias to an acceptable level.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it