The Etiology of Risk in Sexual Offenders: A Preliminary Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sexual offender risk assessment practice is considered by many to be atheoretical. The identification of the most predictive risk factors and tools has typically overshadowed questions about etiology. To gain insight into the origins of criminal behavior among sexual offenders, we developed and validated an etiological model of risk based on the theoretical framework of Beech and Ward. Our model focused on persistence rather than onset, and encompassed both the sexual and nonsexual criminal activity of these offenders. It comprised two pathways. The first was characterized by sexual victimization, social isolation, and early deviant sexual fantasies. It led to a prolific involvement in sexual criminality (especially toward children) and predicted sexual recidivism. The second pathway was characterized by externalization problems, sexual promiscuity, and physical/psychological victimization, and was associated with nonsexual offending and serious sexual offenses directed (mostly) toward women. It predicted all types of recidivism.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".