High-resolution topographical information improves tree-level storm damage models
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Storms cause major forest disturbances in Europe. The aim of this study was to model tree-level storm damage probability based on the properties of a tree and its environment and to examine whether fine-scale topographic information is connected to the damage probability. We used data documenting effects of two autumn storms on over 17 000 trees on permanent Finnish National Forest Inventory plots. The first storm was associated with wet snowfall that damaged trees, while exceptionally strong winds and gusts characterized the second storm. During the storms, soils were unfrozen and deciduous trees were without leaves. Generalized linear mixed models were used to study how topographical variables calculated from digital elevation models (DEM) with resolutions of 2 and 10 m (TOPO2 and TOPO10, respectively) were related to damage probability, in addition to variable groups for tree (TREE) and stand (STAND) characteristics. We compared models containing different variable groups with Akaike information criteria. The best model contained the variable groups TREE, STAND, and TOPO2. Increase in slope steepness calculated from the high-resolution DEM decreased tree-level damage probability significantly in the model. This suggests that the local topography affects the tree-level damage probability and that high-resolution topographical data improves the tree-level damage probability models.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it