Prediction of Cacao (Theobroma cacao) Resistance to Moniliophthora spp. Diseases via Genome-Wide Association Analysis and Genomic Selection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cacao (Theobroma cacao) is a globally important crop, and its yield is severely restricted by disease. Two of the most damaging diseases, witches’ broom disease (WBD) and frosty pod rot disease (FPRD), are caused by a pair of related fungi: Moniliophthora perniciosa and Moniliophthora roreri, respectively. Resistant cultivars are the most effective long-term strategy to address Moniliophthora diseases, but efficiently generating resistant and productive new cultivars will require robust methods for screening germplasm before field testing. Marker-assisted selection (MAS) and genomic selection (GS) provide two potential avenues for predicting the performance of new genotypes, potentially increasing the selection gain per unit time. To test the effectiveness of these two approaches, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and GS on three related populations of cacao in Ecuador genotyped with a 15K SNP microarray for three measures of WBD infection (vegetative broom, cushion broom, and chirimoya pod), one of FPRD (monilia pod) and two productivity traits (total fresh weight of pods and % healthy pods produced). GWAS yielded several SNPs associated with disease resistance in each population, but none were significantly correlated with the same trait in other populations. Genomic selection, using one population as a training set to estimate the phenotypes of the remaining two (composed of different families), varied among traits, from a mean prediction accuracy of 0.46 (vegetative broom) to 0.15 (monilia pod), and varied between training populations. Simulations demonstrated that selecting seedlings using GWAS markers alone generates no improvement over selecting at random, but that GS improves the selection process significantly. Our results suggest that the GWAS markers discovered here are not sufficiently predictive across diverse germplasm to be useful for MAS, but that using all markers in a GS framework holds substantial promise in accelerating disease-resistance in cacao.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".