Fault slip and identification of the second fault plane in the Varzeghan earthquake doublet
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
An intraplate earthquake doublet, with 11-min delay between the events, devastated the city of Varzeghan in northwestern Iran on August 11, 2012. The first Mw 6.5 strike-slip earthquake, which occurred after more than 200 years of low seismicity, was followed by an Mw 6.4 oblique thrust event at an epicentral separation of about 6 km. While the first event can be associated with a distinct surface rupture, the absence of a surface fault trace and no clear aftershock signature makes it challenging to identify the fault plane of the second event. We use teleseismic body wave inversion to deduce the slip distribution in the first event. Using both P and SH waves stabilize the inversion and we further constrain the result with the surface rupture extent and the aftershock distribution. The obtained slip pattern shows two distinct slip patches with dissimilar slip directions where aftershocks avoid high-slip areas. Using the estimated slip for the first event, we calculate the induced Coulomb stress change on the nodal planes of the second event and find a preference for higher Coulomb stress on the N-S nodal plane. Assuming a simple slip model for the second event, we estimate the combined Coulomb stress changes from the two events on the focal planes of the largest aftershocks. We find that 90% of the aftershocks show increased Coulomb stress on one of their nodal planes when the N-S plane of the second event is assumed to be the correct fault plane.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it