Disturbance–climate relationships between wildfire and western spruce budworm in interior British Columbia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Defoliation by the native western spruce budworm (Choristoneura freemaniRazowski;WSB) and wildfires are natural disturbances affecting the structure and function of montane forests in British Columbia, Canada. Limited research describes the climate conditions associated withWSBoutbreaks and historical fire activity in these forests, and the spatial stability of these relationships across landscapes. Site‐specific and regional characterizations of these relationships are required to establish the historical baselines necessary to document disturbance–climate relationships within dry conifer forests. We compiled site‐level and regionalized tree‐ring chronologies of fire (AD1600–2013) andWSB(AD1600–2009) outbreaks for both lower montane forests adjacent to expansive grasslands and middle montane forests (regionalized grassland and non‐grassland chronologies). At site and regional scales, the relation between fire years, outbreaks ofWSB, reconstructed values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, and annual precipitation were examined using superposed epoch and bivariate event analyses. Regional disturbance–climate relationships were used to evaluate the influence of grassland proximity on these relationships and the disturbance history characteristics. The findings show that fires affecting grassland proximal sites in lower montane forests were historically more frequent than fires occurring in middle montane forests and were related to warm, dry conditions in the fire year and cool, wet conditions in the year(s) preceding the fire. These results indicate the climate conditions associated with both fine fuel growth and drying are key determinants for fire activity in lower montane forests. The initiation ofWSBoutbreaks was significantly related to drought, and this relationship was enhanced at lower montane sites. We also examined the interrelationships between fire years andWSBoutbreaks, but no associations were discerned. Considering the recent escalation of widespread forest fire activity in the Pacific Northwest of North America and the potential for timber losses associated withWSBdefoliation, the findings provide information important to forest scientists charged with promoting forest health and resilience in the dry montane forests of interior British Columbia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".