The potential effects of climate change on the habitat range of the Vancouver Island marmot (<i>Marmota vancouverensis</i>)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Research shows that the rise in surface temperatures induced by climate change will cause many animal species to follow their shifting ranges either upwards in elevation or polewards. Since the Vancouver Island marmot, one of Canada's most vulnerable species, is found in only a few fragmented locations on the Island, a shift in range could be detrimental to their well‐being. Using habitat restrictions based on existing successful hibernacula, this study modeled the marmot's current potential habitat range, which was found to be approximately 3200 km2, or 9.6% of the area of Vancouver Island. Next, we modeled the potential shift in habitat range due to the projected change in the climate of Vancouver Island and found that the habitat range shrinks to just 85 km2, or 0.2% of Vancouver Island. These results outline a clear trend in marmot habitat—that the impacts of climate change will substantially reduce the amount of potential habitat for the Vancouver Island marmot. We recommend that further research focus on the impacts of climate change on local climate regimes, including snowpack, marmot predators, and marmot food sources. Soil depths and natural meadows are also important to marmot habitat and require additional research and mapping.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".