Migraine and the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events: a meta-analysis of 16 cohort studies including 1 152 407 subjects
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objectives To perform an updated meta-analysis to evaluate the long-term cardiovascular and cerebrovascular outcomes among migraineurs. Setting A meta-analysis of cohort studies performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Data sources The MEDLINE, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were searched for relevant articles. Participants A total of 16 cohort studies (18 study records) with 394 942 migraineurs and 757 465 non-migraineurs were analysed. Primary and secondary outcome measures Major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), stroke (ie, ischaemic, haemorrhagic or non-specified), myocardial infarction (MI) and all-cause mortality. The outcomes were reported at the longest available follow-up. Data analysis Summary-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were calculated by random-effects Der-Simonian and Liard model. The risk of bias was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Results Migraine was associated with a higher risk of MACCE (adjusted HR 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26 to 1.60, P<0.001, I 2 =40%) driven by a higher risk of stroke (adjusted HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.61, P<0.001, I 2 =72%) and MI (adjusted HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.43, P=0.006, I 2 =59%). There was no difference in the risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.10, P=0.38, I 2 =91%), with a considerable degree of statistical heterogeneity between the studies. The presence of aura was an effect modifier for stroke (adjusted HR aura 1.56, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.87 vs adjusted HR no aura 1.11, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.31, P interaction =0.01) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR aura 1.20, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.30 vs adjusted HR no aura 0.96, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.07, P interaction <0.001). Conclusion Migraine headache was associated with an increased long-term risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. This effect was due to an increased risk of stroke (both ischaemic and haemorrhagic) and MI. There was a moderate to severe degree of heterogeneity for the outcomes, which was partly explained by the presence of aura. PROSPERO registration number CRD42016052460 .
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.019 | 0.026 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.013 | 0.057 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".