Allele-specific transcription factor binding as a benchmark for assessing variant impact predictors
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Genetic variation has long been known to alter transcription factor binding sites, resulting in sometimes major phenotypic consequences. While the performance for current binding site predictors is well characterised, little is known on how these models perform at predicting impact of variants. We collected and curated over 132,000 potential allele-specific binding (ASB) ChIP-seq variants across 101 transcription factors (TFs). We then assessed the accuracy of TF binding models from five different methods on these high-confidence measurements, finding that deep learning methods were best performing yet still have room for improvement. Importantly, machine learning methods were consistently better than the venerable position weight matrix (PWM). Finally, predictions for certain TFs were consistently poor, and our investigation supports efforts to use features beyond sequence, such as methylation, DNA shape, and post-translational modifications. We submit that ASB data is a valuable benchmark for variant impact on TF binding.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".