Reduced sea ice protection period increases storm exposure in Kivalina, Alaska
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
On Arctic coasts, erosion is limited by the presence of nearshore sea ice, which creates a protective barrier from storms. In Kivalina, an Alaskan Inupiaq Inuit community, decreasing seasonal sea ice extent and a lengthening of the open-water season may be resulting in fall storms that (1) generate higher, longer, and more destructive waves and (2) cause damage later in the year, resulting in increased flooding and erosion. We assess trends in the duration of nearshore sea ice and their relationship with storm occurrence over the period 1979–2015 in Kivalina. Analysis of passive microwave sea ice concentration data indicates that the open-water season has increased by 5.6 ± 1.2 days/decade over the last 37 years, with moderate evidence that it is extending further into the fall than into the spring. This is correlated with an increased reporting frequency of high-damage storms; 80% of reported storms since 1970 occurred in the last 15 years. Each high-damage storm event occurred during the open-water season for that year. Our findings support Kivalina villagers’ assertions that climate change increases storm exposure and associated damages from flooding and erosion.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it