Shocks Pass-Through to Prices in U.S. and Canada: Evidence from Oil and Exchange Rate Markets
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates the degree of exchange rate and oil prices pass-through to import prices, producer prices, and consumer prices in Canada and United States over the period from 1980 to 2017 using a Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR) model. The results indicate a robust evidence of a positive long-run correlation between exchange rate & oil prices and aggregate price levels. Impulse response function reveals a persistent and incomplete pass-through for both exchange rates and oil prices i.e. 0.20 and 0.04 for Canada and 0.27 and 0.25 for the U.S. That is, greater pass-through exist in an economy which has a more oil import share, more volatile monetary policy, and higher inflation rate. Consistent with impulse response function, variance decomposition reveals that oil price shocks in the United States are the major cause of the variation in the import prices and producer prices, while exchange rate fluctuations explain more of the variation in consumer prices. However, in Canada, import prices are mainly explained by exchange rate fluctuations, while oil price shocks explain the variation in producer and consumer prices.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".