GEPPML: General equilibrium analysis with PPML
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We develop a simple procedure for general equilibrium comparative static analysis of gravity models. Non‐linear solvers are replaced by (constrained) regressions using theoretical properties of the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood estimator. Our GEPPML procedure can readily be implemented in any software capable of estimating constrained Poisson models. The procedure accommodates calibrated as well as estimated trade costs while using the estimation power of structural gravity to generate GE comparative statics. Using GEPPML, we quantify the effects of a hypothetical removal of all international borders while preserving the impact of geography on trade. We find that trade liberalisation has reaped at most half the potential world gains from trade in 2002 manufacturing. A complementary counterfactual experiment simulates the removal of the border between Canada and US, thus contributing to the famous “border puzzle” literature in a multicountry setting.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it