The Situation for Influenza in the World in Summer 2015 and the Preliminary Forecast for the Upcoming Season 2015 - 2016
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution of influenza data weekly to WHO data in the summer of 2015 in the countries of the Southern and Northern hemispheres It is shown that in the Southern hemisphere registered a moderate influenza epidemics in Oceania and South Africa and local and regional outbreaks. In the Northern hemisphere was registered to the local influenza outbreak and sporadic morbidity. The main causative agent of the influenza was virus influenza B, except Asia, where the predominant influenza A(H3N2). In the Northern hemisphere the proportion of influenza was greater, than in the South. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were detected mainly in Africa and S. America. Antigenic analyses of influenza viruses revealed the circulation in Canada of strain B/Massachusetts/2/2012 (Yamagata line) (69.7%) and A/Switzerland/9715293/2013(H3N2) (8.6%), while in N. Zealand - B/ Phuket/3073/2013(Yamagata line) (45%) and strain A/Switzerland/9715293/2013(H3N2) (24.8%). Virus A(H1N1)pdm09 was represented by the strain A/California/7/2009 in both countries. In the epidemic season 2015 - 2016 will continue circulation previously identified influenza viruses, but we cannot exclude the possibility of emergence of new strains of influenza viruses. In Russia you can expect a mixed epidemic (A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and B) moderate intensity at the usual time (in the second half of January).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".