El Niño Range Extensions of Pacific Sand Crab (<i>Emerita analoga</i>) in the Northeastern Pacific
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many marine species are shifting poleward with global climate change, and many move on a shorter-term basis with periodic climate variations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The Pacific sand crab Emerita analoga (Crustacea: Decapoda: Anomura: Hippidae) is a dominant member of the wave-exposed sandy beach macrofauna of California and Oregon. Its occasional records from Washington to Alaska have been taken to correspond to ENSO events. However, there are surprisingly few scientific or citizen-science records of its presence in this region. We report the first published record in over 30 years of E. analoga in British Columbia, and summarize historical published and unpublished records. Because this species is conspicuous and readily identifiable, we suggest the general absence of its published, institutional, and citizen-science records coincident with most historical ENSO events may be due to a lack of reporting. In California, E. analoga accumulates harmful algal bloom toxins, is consumed by crabs, fish, birds, and marine and terrestrial mammals, and serves as the intermediate host for a variety of parasites, including the peritonitis-inducing acanthocephalan implicated in sea otter mortalities. As coastal waters warm, we predict that E. analoga will colonize sandy beaches north of its current range, where it may serve as an abundant prey item and as a vector for the trophic transfer of toxins and parasites. Detecting changes in its abundance will require the continued observation and reporting of its records, which we encourage in academic, government, and citizen-science venues.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".