Estimation of Urban Link Travel Time Distribution Using Markov Chains and Bayesian Approaches
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Despite the wide application of Floating Car Data (FCD) in urban link travel time and congestion estimation, the sparsity of observations from a low penetration rate of GPS-equipped floating cars make it difficult to estimate travel time distribution (TTD), especially when the travel times may have multimodal distributions that are associated with the underlying traffic states. In this case, the study develops a Bayesian approach based on particle filter framework for link TTD estimation using real-time and historical travel time observations from FCD. First, link travel times are classified by different traffic states according to the levels of vehicle delays. Then, a state-transition function is represented as a Transition Probability Matrix of the Markov chain between upstream and current links with historical observations. Using the state-transition function, an importance distribution is constructed as the summation of historical link TTDs conditional on states weighted by the current link state probabilities. Further, a sampling strategy is developed to address the sparsity problem of observations by selecting the particles with larger weights in terms of the importance distribution and a Gaussian likelihood function. Finally, the current link TTD can be reconstructed by a generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm incorporating high weighted particles. The proposed approach is evaluated using real-world FCD. The results indicate that the proposed approach provides good accurate estimations, which are very close to the empirical distributions. In addition, the approach with different percentage of floating cars is tested. The results are encouraging, even when multimodal distributions and very few or no observations exist.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".