Valuation and Risk Assessment of a Portfolio of Variable Annuities: A Vector Autoregression Approach
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper focuses on assessing the financial position of an insurer issuing a portfolio of Variable Annuities (VAs). Two multivariate models for the underlying and the interest rate are considered. The first model uses a single total rate of return for the basket of assets. The second one, jointly models the rates of return on the n assets in the basket. For simplicity, the insurer is assumed to be able to implement a static hedging programme to manage the risk. As an example, a homogeneous portfolio of VAs with GMDB and GMMB guarantees offering different investment opportunities to the policyholders is studied. The insurer can choose to rebalance the basket of assets regularly or not. Results for these two cases are presented.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it