Towards a sustainable oil supply: A risk diversification model to measure oil security risk in Japan and South Korea
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper proposes a quantitative optimization model to investigate the oil supply risk from the perspective of the diversification of oil import sources. Japan and South Korea are highly dependent on oil imports from foreign countries. Both countries are seeking sustainable strategies to ensure a continuous and stable oil supply. Effective diversification of crude oil imports plays an important role in energy security. The optimization results imply that Japan faces the highest oil import risk. Japan should reduce oil imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Instead, Japan should import more oil from Russia and Iraq. South Korea should reduce its oil dependence on the Persian Gulf countries. Based on forecasts of oil demand and production, Japan and South Korea will have lower oil supply risks until 2035. It can be attributed to the decreased oil imports and improved energy efficiency for both countries under individual energy efficiency programs. The Middle East countries maintain the dominant positions in oil imports for both Japan and South Korea. Saudi Arabia will remain the largest supplier to both countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".