Export Spread, Farmer Revenue and Grain Export Capacity in Western Canada
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Starting in the 2013-14 crop year, a lack of export capacity resulted in substantial increases in the spread between farm and port FOB prices in western Canada. This created a very difficult situation for the farming community. We calculate that this situation reduced grain farmers’ income over the 2013-14 and 2014-15 crop years by approximately C$6.7 billion. Clearly, the grain handling and transportation system has problems and capacity to move grain is one of them. To evaluate the need for grain export capacity expansion, we forecast future grain production using a rational expectations model to estimate future export spreads and subsequent rents. We find that without capacity improvements, the expected cost of limited grain export capacity could exceed C$5.6 billion over the next decade. Capacity improvements on the order of a 25% increase will likely mitigate this issue in the future.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it