The Making of Contemporary Australian Monetary Policy - Backward- or Forward- Looking?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Monetary authorities rarely disclose the true reasons behind their policy reactions. A tracing of the policy reaction function to see if the monetary authority is applying simple rules holds the potential to offer profound insight into the past behavioral relationship between the monetary authority and economic agencies. A reasonable body of knowledge about the direction of monetary policy would, moreover, assist economic agencies in forming their expectations, which would in turn, be useful for the monetary authority in anticipating the likely trends of the overall economy. The main objective of this study is to track de Brouwer and Gilbert (2005) from the Australian financial deregulation era (from 1983 to 2002) to the present. Empirical findings show that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is more forward-looking when formulating monetary policy rather than backward-looking, and that inflation targeting plays a significant role in stabilizing the output of the economy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".