Association between afterhours admission to the intensive care unit, strained capacity, and mortality: a retrospective cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) outside daytime hours has been shown to be variably associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We aimed to describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to the ICU afterhours (22:00-06:59 h) in a large Canadian health region. We further hypothesized that the association between afterhours admission and mortality would be modified by indicators of strained ICU capacity. METHODS: This is a population-based cohort study of 12,265 adults admitted to nine ICUs in Alberta from June 2012 to December 2014. We used a path-analysis modeling strategy and mixed-effects multivariate regression analysis to evaluate direct and integrated associations (mediated through Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score) between afterhours admission (22:00-06:59 h) and ICU mortality. Further analysis examined the effects of strained ICU capacity and varied definitions of afterhours and weekend admissions. ICU occupancy ≥ 90% or clustering of admissions (≥ 0.15, defined as number of admissions 2 h before or after the index admission, divided by the number of ICU beds) were used as indicators of strained capacity. RESULTS: Of 12,265 admissions, 34.7% (n = 4251) occurred afterhours. The proportion of afterhours admissions varied amongst ICUs (range 26.7-37.8%). Patients admitted afterhours were younger (median (IQR) 58 (44-70) vs 60 (47-70) years, p < 0.0001), more likely to have a medical diagnosis (75.9% vs 72.1%, p < 0.0001), and had higher APACHE II scores (20.9 (8.6) vs 19.9 (8.3), p < 0.0001). Crude ICU mortality was greater for those admitted afterhours (15.9% vs 14.1%, p = 0.007), but following multivariate adjustment there was no direct or integrated effect on ICU mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.024; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.923-1.135, p = 0.658). Furthermore, direct and integrated analysis showed no association of afterhours admission and hospital mortality (p = 0.90) or hospital length of stay (LOS) (p = 0.27), although ICU LOS was shorter (p = 0.049). Early-morning admission (00:00-06:59 h) with ICU occupancy ≥ 90% was associated with short-term (≤ 7 days) and all-cause ICU mortality. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of critically ill patients are admitted to the ICU afterhours. Afterhours ICU admission was not associated with greater mortality risk in most circumstances but was sensitive to strained ICU capacity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".