Quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccination in girls and the risk of autoimmune disorders: the Ontario Grade 8 HPV Vaccine Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<h3>BACKGROUND:</h3> Despite demonstrated effectiveness in real-world settings, concerns persist regarding the safety of the quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV4) vaccine. We sought to assess the risk of autoimmune disorders following HPV4 vaccination among grade 8 girls eligible for Ontario’s school-based HPV vaccination program. <h3>METHODS:</h3> We undertook a population-based retrospective cohort study using Ontario’s administrative health and vaccination databases from 2007 to 2013. The self-controlled case series method was used to compare the rate of a composite end point of autoimmune disorders diagnosed during days 7–60 post-vaccination (“exposed” follow-up) to that at any other time (“unexposed”). The analysis was repeated to assess the effect of a history of immune-mediated diseases and time since vaccination. We also conducted an exploratory analysis of individual autoimmune disorders. Rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using conditional Poisson regression, adjusted for age, seasonality, concomitant vaccinations and infections. <h3>RESULTS:</h3> The study cohort consisted of 290 939 girls aged 12–17 years who were eligible for vaccination between 2007 and 2013. There was no significant risk for developing an autoimmune disorder following HPV4 vaccination (<i>n</i> = 681; rate ratio 1.12, 95% CI 0.85–1.47), and the association was unchanged by a history of immune-mediated disorders and time since vaccination. Exploratory analyses of individual autoimmune disorders found no significant risks, including for Bell palsy (<i>n</i> = 65; rate ratio 1.73, 95% CI 0.77–3.89), optic neuritis (<i>n</i> = 67; rate ratio 1.57, 95% CI 0.74–3.33) and Graves disease (<i>n</i> = 47; rate ratio 1.55, 95% CI 0.92–2.63). <h3>INTERPRETATION:</h3> We did not observe an increased risk of autoimmune disorders following HPV4 vaccination among teenaged girls. These findings should reassure parents and health care providers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".