The Validity of the Cracow Instrument in the Prediction of Antisocial Development in Preschool Children: A Five-Year Longitudinal Community-Based Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Risk-focused early intervention is a very promising approach for preventing antisocial development in childhood and youth. Therefore, at a NATO Advanced Study Institute the Cracow Instrument was developed (Corrado, 2002). The Cracow Instrument is a developmentally based risk management instrument designed to identify children and youth at-risk for serious and violent antisocial behavior. The current study examines the prospective validity of the Cracow Instrument utilizing the Erlangen-Nuremberg Development and Prevention Study (e.g., Lösel, Stemmler, & Bender, 2013). At the first assessment, the community sample contained 675 male and female children at preschool age ( M = 4.7 years). For example, for a broad scale on externalizing problems the predictive validity was r = .52 (AUC = .78) after one year and r = .42 (AUC = .75) after five years. Overall, the predictive validity of the Cracow Instrument was satisfactory. Implications for its practical application in risk management are discussed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".