Stormtime substorm onsets: occurrence and flow channel triggering
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Bright auroral emissions during geomagnetic storms provide a good opportunity for testing the proposal that substorm onset is frequently triggered by plasma sheet flow bursts that are manifested in the ionosphere as auroral streamers. We have used the broad coverage of the ionospheric mapping of the plasma sheet offered by the high-resolution THEMIS all-sky-imagers (ASIs) and chose the main phases of 9 coronal mass ejection (CME) related and 9 high-speed stream (HSS)-related geomagnetic storms, and identified substorm auroral onsets defined as brightening followed by poleward expansion. We found a detectable streamer heading to near the substorm onset location for all 60 onsets that we identified and were observed well by the ASIs. This indicates that substorm onsets are very often triggered by the intrusion of plasma with lower entropy than the surrounding plasma to the onset region, with the caveat that the ASIs do not give a direct measure of the intruding plasma. The majority of the triggering streamers are "tilted streamers," which extend eastward as their eastern tip tilts equatorward to near the substorm onset location. Fourteen of the 60 cases were identified as "Harang streamers," where the streamer discernibly turns toward the west poleward of reaching to near the onset latitude, indicating flow around the Harang reversal. Using the ASI observations, we observed substantially less substorm onsets for CME storms than for HSS storms, a result in disagreement with a recent finding of approximately equal substorm occurrences. We suggest that this difference is a result of strong non-substorm streamers that give substorm-like signatures in ground magnetic field observations but are not substorms based on their auroral signature. Our results from CME storms with steady, strong southward IMF are not consistent with the ~ 2-4 h repetition of substorms that has been suggested for moderate to strong southward IMF conditions. Instead, our results indicate substantially lower substorm occurrence during such steady driving conditions. Our results also show the much more frequent occurrence of substorms during HSS period, which is likely due to the highly fluctuating IMF.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it