An alternative hypothesis explains outbreaks of conifer‐feeding budworms of the genus <i>Choristoneura</i> (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This alternative hypothesis states that forests attacked by spruce budworms are, for most of the time, nutritional deserts. During these periods, endemic populations persist in scattered “refuges” on a few stressed trees, but this situation changes once trees in a forest become over‐mature and start to senesce. Senescence causes protein in their mature needles to break down at an accelerating rate, releasing higher levels of soluble amino acids into the phloem thereby increasing the quality of food for larval budworms. Additional stress such as drought that damages or kills the trees’ feeding roots accelerates this process and further elevates the quality of the food for larvae. All the foliage in the forest then become nutritious enough to support high numbers of budworm larvae so that nearly all the young larvae of moths dispersing from refuges into the surrounding newly stressed trees survive and an outbreak ensues.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".