Alcohol use effects on adolescent brain development revealed by simultaneously removing confounding factors, identifying morphometric patterns, and classifying individuals
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Group analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics frequently employs generalized additive models (GAM) to remove contributions of confounding factors before identifying cohort specific characteristics. For example, the National Consortium on Alcohol and NeuroDevelopment in Adolescence (NCANDA) used such an approach to identify effects of alcohol misuse on the developing brain. Here, we hypothesized that considering confounding factors before group analysis removes information relevant for distinguishing adolescents with drinking history from those without. To test this hypothesis, we introduce a machine-learning model that identifies cohort-specific, neuromorphometric patterns by simultaneously training a GAM and generic classifier on macrostructural MRI and microstructural diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) metrics and compare it to more traditional group analysis and machine-learning approaches. Using a baseline NCANDA MR dataset (N = 705), the proposed machine learning approach identified a pattern of eight brain regions unique to adolescents who misuse alcohol. Classifying high-drinking adolescents was more accurate with that pattern than using regions identified with alternative approaches. The findings of the joint model approach thus were (1) impartial to confounding factors; (2) relevant to drinking behaviors; and (3) in concurrence with the alcohol literature.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".