Precipitation and ectoparasitism reduce reproductive success in an arctic-nesting top-predator
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Indirect impacts of climate change, mediated by new species interactions (including pathogens or parasites) will likely be key drivers of biodiversity reorganization. In addition, direct effects of extreme weather events remain understudied. Simultaneous investigation of the significance of ectoparasites on host populations and extreme weather events is lacking, especially in the Arctic. Here we document the consequences of recent black fly outbreaks and extreme precipitation events on the reproductive output of an arctic top predator, the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus tundrius) nesting at the northern range limit of ornithophilic black flies in Nunavut, Canada. Overall, black fly outbreaks and heavy rain reduced annual nestling survival by up to 30% and 50% respectively. High mortality caused by ectoparasites followed record-breaking spring snow precipitation, which likely increased stream discharge and nutrient runoff, two key parameters involved in growth and survival of black fly larvae. Using the RCP4.5 intermediate climate scenario run under the Canadian Global Climate Model, we anticipate a northward expansion of black fly distribution in Arctic regions. Our case study demonstrates that, in the context of climate change, extreme weather events can have substantial direct and indirect effects on reproductive output of an arctic top-predator population.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".