Round-trip across the Sahara: Afrotropical Painted Lady butterflies recolonize the Mediterranean in early spring
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Palearctic–African migratory circuit has been typically associated with birds. Very few insects are known to endure annual trans-Saharan circuits, but the Painted Lady butterfly ( Vanessa cardui ) is an exception. While it was demonstrated that this species massively migrates from Europe to the Afrotropics during the autumn, the existence of a reverse migration from the Afrotropics to Europe in the early spring remains hypothetical. Here, we analysed wing stable hydrogen isotope values (δ 2 H) of V. cardui migrants collected from February to April across the circum-Mediterranean region. We assessed their region of natal origin by comparing their wing isotope signature predicted δ 2 H values (isoscape). The results unambiguously demonstrate a sub-Saharan origin for many individuals, especially those collected in February, representing the first tangible evidence for a reverse northwards trans-Saharan migration in spring. This work supports the view that the Afrotropics (mostly exploited from September to February) is key in the V. cardui Palearctic–African population dynamics. This species relies on both temperate and tropical habitats to complete their multigenerational cycle, an unprecedented adaptation for butterflies and for most migratory insects. Such a migratory circuit has strong parallelisms with those of migratory birds.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".