Analysis of Capital Flow in Commodity Futures Market Based on SVM
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Commodity futures are futures contracts based on the physical commodities. Unlike commodity stocks, which must be “bought first and then sold”, commodity futures can also be “sold first and then bought”. Therefore, it is not possible to directly use the formula of capital flow in the stock market to characterize the capital flow in futures contracts. In this paper, the principal component analysis method is used to construct the principal component factors based on the K-line basic market data and one based on the K-line index data. Then the factors mentioned above are cross-validated using the Holdout verification form to generate the training set and test of the support vector machine. Then, this paper applies genetic algorithm to optimize the penalty parameters and kernel functions of SVM, and obtains the parameters with the highest accuracy of classification and prediction of capital flow. Finally, this paper uses the traversal algorithm to find the time window with the highest accuracy of the SVM classification to predict the capital flow. The research results of this paper show that the SVM-based classification of capital flow in commodity futures market is highly accurate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".