Meta-analysis of 1,200 transcriptomic profiles identifies a prognostic model for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Background With a dismal 8% median 5-year overall survival (OS), pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is highly lethal. Only 10-20% of patients are eligible for surgery, and over 50% of these will die within a year of surgery. Identify molecular predictors of early death would enable the selection of PDAC patients at high risk. Methods We developed the Pancreatic Cancer Overall Survival Predictor (PCOSP), a prognostic model built from a unique set of 89 PDAC tumors where gene expression was profiled using both microarray and sequencing platforms. We used a meta-analysis framework based on the binary gene pair method to create gene expression barcodes robust to biases arising from heterogeneous profiling platforms and batch effects. Leveraging the largest compendium of PDAC transcriptomic datasets to date, we show that PCOSP is a robust single-sample predictor of early death (≤1 yr) after surgery in a subset of 823 samples with available transcriptomics and survival data. Results The PCOSP model was strongly and significantly prognostic with a meta-estimate of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.70 (P=1.9e-18) and hazard ratio (HR) of 1.95(1.6-2.3) (P=2.6e-16) for binary and survival predictions, respectively. The prognostic value of PCOSP was independent of clinicopathological parameters and molecular subtypes. Over-representation analysis of the PCOSP 2619 gene-pairs (1070 unique genes) unveiled pathways associated with Hedgehog signalling, epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT) and extracellular matrix (ECM) signalling. Conclusion PCOSP could improve treatment decision by identifying patients who will not benefit from standard surgery/chemotherapy and may benefit from alternate approaches. Abbreviations AUROC Area under the receiver operating curve GO Gene annotation OS Overall survival PCOSP Pancreatic cancer overall survival predictor PDAC Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma TSP Top scoring pairs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.012 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.015 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".