Eco-immunology in the cold: the role of immunity in shaping the overwintering survival of ectotherms
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The effect of temperature on physiology mediates many of the challenges that ectotherms face under climate change. Ectotherm immunity is thermally sensitive and, as such, environmental change is likely to have complex effects on survival, disease resistance and transmission. The effects of temperature on immunity will be particularly profound in winter because cold and overwintering are important triggers and regulators of ectotherm immune activity. Low temperatures can both suppress and activate immune responses independent of parasites, which suggests that temperature not only affects the rate of immune responses but also provides information that allows overwintering ectotherms to balance investment in immunity and other physiological processes that underlie winter survival. Changing winter temperatures are now shifting ectotherm immunity, as well as the demand for energy conservation and protection against parasites. Whether an ectotherm can survive the winter will thus depend on whether new immune phenotypes will shift to match the conditions of the new environment, or leave ectotherms vulnerable to infection or energy depletion. Here, we synthesise patterns of overwintering immunity in ectotherms and examine how new winter conditions might affect ectotherm immunity. We then explore whether it is possible to predict the effects of changing winter conditions on ectotherm vulnerability to the direct and indirect effects of parasites.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it