Climatic, geomorphologic and hydrologic perturbations as drivers for mid‐ to late Holocene development of ice‐wedge polygons in the western Canadian Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Ice-wedge polygons are widespread periglacial features and influence landscape hydrology and carbon storage. The influence of climate and topography on polygon development is not entirely clear, however, giving high uncertainties to projections of permafrost development. We studied the mid- to late Holocene development of modern ice-wedge polygon sites to explore drivers of change and reasons for long-term stability. We analyzed organic carbon, total nitrogen, stable carbon isotopes, grain size composition and plant macrofossils in six cores from three polygons. We found that all sites developed from aquatic to wetland conditions. In the mid-Holocene, shallow lakes and partly submerged ice-wedge polygons existed at the studied sites. An erosional hiatus of ca 5000 years followed, and ice-wedge polygons re-initiated within the last millennium. Ice-wedge melt and surface drying during the last century were linked to climatic warming. The influence of climate on ice-wedge polygon development was outweighed by geomorphology during most of the late Holocene. Recent warming, however, caused ice-wedge degradation at all sites. Our study showed that where waterlogged ground was maintained, low-centered polygons persisted for millennia. Ice-wedge melt and increased drainage through geomorphic disturbance, however, triggered conversion into high-centered polygons and may lead to self-enhancing degradation under continued warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".