Bright lights, big city: Causal effects of population and GDP on urban brightness
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Cities are arguably both the cause, and answer, to societies' current sustainability issues. Urbanization is the interplay between a city's physical growth and its socio-economic development, both of which consume a substantial amount of energy and resources. Knowledge of the underlying driver(s) of urban expansion facilitates not only academic research but, more importantly, bridges the gap between science, policy drafting, and practical urban management. An increasing number of researchers are recognizing the benefits of innovative remotely sensed datasets, such as nighttime lights data (NTL), as a proxy to map urbanization and subsequently examine the driving socio-economic variables in cities. We further these approaches, by taking a trans-pacific view, and examine how an array of socio-economic ind0icators of 25 culturally and economically important urban hubs relate to long term patterns in NTL for the past 21 years. We undertake a classic econometric approach-panel causality tests which allow analysis of the causal relationships between NTL and socio-economic development across the region. The panel causality test results show a contrasting effect of population and gross domestic product (GDP) on NTL in fast, and slowly, changing cities. Information derived from this study quantitatively chronicles urban activities in the pan-Pacific region and potentially offers data for studies that spatially track local progress of sustainable urban development goals.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".