Labor market and health trajectories during periods of economic recession and expansion in the United States, 1988‒2011
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objectives We examined associations between labor market and health (LM-H) trajectories in the United States between 1988 and 2011 and whether associations differed across macroeconomic expansion/recession periods. Methods Working-age cohorts, derived from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics, were followed over time to characterize LM-H trajectories. Poisson regression provided relative risks (RR) with robust 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between trajectories, adjusting for demographic and socioeconomic variables. Results LM trajectories ending in unemployment (RR 1.7‒2.5 across periods) or inactivity (RR 2.3-3.2) had a greater risk of worsening health trajectories, compared to stable employment. In contrast, RR for individuals returning to work following an intermediary period of unemployment/inactivity were attenuated across most periods. Stable-employed individuals had the highest probability of remaining in good health, whereas trajectories ending in unemployment or inactivity had the lowest probability. These overall relationships were consistent across macroeconomic periods. Conclusions We found strong and consistent relationships between LM-H trajectories across macroeconomic periods. The attenuated (but not eliminated) risk among individuals returning to work following a period of unemployment/inactivity suggests that health outcomes are not only dependent on the LM end-state, but also on the distinct pattern over time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".