Nonoperative Management of Posterior Shoulder Instability: An Assessment of Survival and Predictors for Conversion to Surgery at 1 to 10 Years After Diagnosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: To (1) define the rate of delayed surgery, between 1 and 10 years after injury, in a population-based study of patients with posterior shoulder instability (PSI), (2) evaluate predictive factors associated with delayed repair, and (3) identify differences between the nonoperative and operative groups at long-term follow-up. METHODS: A population-based retrospectively reviewed study of all patients with PSI from January 1, 1994, to December 31, 2015, was performed. Inclusion required a clinical diagnosis of PSI combined with supporting imaging. Complete medical records were reviewed for 2,091 potential cases. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to calculate survival. Landmark survival analysis was performed to identify predictors of conversion to surgery. RESULTS: The study included 143 patients with PSI, 79 of whom were managed nonoperatively for at least 1 year after diagnosis. After the first year, survival free of surgery was 78.3% at 1 year, 63.1% at 5 years, and 51.5% at 10 years. There was a trend toward increased surgery in patients with a body mass index > 35 (P = .10; hazard ratio = 2.32; confidence interval, 0.8-6.8). Nonthrowing athletes (including contact/weight-lifting athletes) showed a trend toward an increased risk for surgery (P = .07). Patients who underwent surgery were significantly more likely to have progression in arthritis (P = .02; hazard ratio = 4.0; confidence interval, 1.2-13.2). CONCLUSIONS: Nonoperative management was performed for at least 1 year in over half of patients diagnosed with PSI. Overall, long-term follow-up demonstrates that 46% of these patients converted to surgery between 1 and 10 years after initial diagnosis. Ultimately, 70% of patients diagnosed with PSI go on to surgical intervention. Patients who underwent surgery at any time point were at an increased risk of radiographic progression of arthritis at a minimum of 5 years of follow-up. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, cohort study.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".