Analysis of conversion of Alzheimer’s disease using a multi-state Markov model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
With rapid aging of world population, Alzheimer's disease is becoming a leading cause of death after cardiovascular disease and cancer. Nearly 10% of people who are over 65 years old are affected by Alzheimer's disease. The causes have been studied intensively, but no definitive answer has been found. Genetic predisposition, abnormal protein deposits in brain, and environmental factors are suspected to play a role in the development of this disease. In this paper, we model progression of Alzheimer's disease using a multi-state Markov model to investigate the significance of known risk factors such as age, apolipoprotein E4, and some brain structural volumetric variables from magnetic resonance imaging scans (e.g., hippocampus, etc.) while predicting transitions between different clinical diagnosis states. With the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative data, we found that the model with age is not significant (p = 0.1733) according to the likelihood ratio test, but the apolipoprotein E4 is a significant risk factor, and the examination of apolipoprotein E4-by-sex interaction suggests that the apolipoprotein E4 link to Alzheimer's disease is stronger in women. Given the estimated transition probabilities, the prediction accuracy is as high as 0.7849.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.025 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".