Population genomics through time provides insights into the consequences of decline and rapid demographic recovery through head‐starting in a Galapagos giant tortoise
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Population genetic theory related to the consequences of rapid population decline is well‐developed, but there are very few empirical studies where sampling was conducted before and after a known bottleneck event. Such knowledge is of particular importance for species restoration, given links between genetic diversity and the probability of long‐term persistence. To directly evaluate the relationship between current genetic diversity and past demographic events, we collected genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphism data from prebottleneck historical (c.1906) and postbottleneck contemporary (c.2014) samples of Pinzón giant tortoises (Chelonoidis duncanensis; n = 25 and 149 individuals, respectively) endemic to a single island in the Galapagos. Pinzón giant tortoises had a historically large population size that was reduced to just 150–200 individuals in the mid 20th century. Since then, Pinzón's tortoise population has recovered through an ex situ head‐start programme in which eggs or pre‐emergent individuals were collected from natural nests on the island, reared ex situ in captivity until they were 4–5 years old and subsequently repatriated. We found that the extent and distribution of genetic variation in the historical and contemporary samples were very similar, with the latter group not exhibiting the characteristic genetic patterns of recent population decline. No population structure was detected either spatially or temporally. We estimated an effective population size (Ne) of 58 (95% CI = 50–69) for the postbottleneck population; no prebottleneck Ne point estimate was attainable (95% CI = 39–infinity) likely due to the sample size being lower than the true Ne. Overall, the historical sample provided a valuable benchmark for evaluating the head‐start captive breeding programme, revealing high retention of genetic variation and no skew in representation despite the documented bottleneck event. Moreover, this work demonstrates the effectiveness of head‐starting in rescuing the Pinzón giant tortoise from almost certain extinction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".