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Record W2885338780 · doi:10.1177/0093854818793382

Long-Term Recidivism Studies Show That Desistance Is the Norm

2018· article· en· W2885338780 on OpenAlexaff
R. Karl Hanson

Bibliographic record

VenueCriminal Justice and Behavior · 2018
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicCriminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
Canadian institutionsCarleton University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsRecidivismConvictionCriminal recordCriminal justicePsychologyCriminologyPopulationNorm (philosophy)Criminal ConvictionTerm (time)Actuarial scienceDemographyLawSociologyPolitical scienceEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

A criminal history record is a valid indicator of the propensity for rule violation, and such records are rightly used in applied decision making both within and outside of the criminal justice system (e.g., employment screening). A criminal conviction, however, is a time dependent risk factor. During the past decade, researchers have examined desistance using statistical models of residual hazards. These studies find that after about 10 years offense-free (5 years for juveniles), the risk presented by most individuals with a criminal record is not meaningfully different from that of the general population. Similar time-free effects are found for both sexual and nonsexual offenses. Given that desistance is almost inevitable, record retention and access policies need to carefully consider the consequences of decisions being based on old records with little information value.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.007
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.038
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.010
Threshold uncertainty score0.036

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0070.038
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0020.001
Scholarly communication0.0020.002
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0060.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.130
GPT teacher head0.396
Teacher spread0.265 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations53
Published2018
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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