On the Emergence of Anthropogenic Signal in Extreme Precipitation Change Over China
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The detection of anthropogenic influences on climate extremes at regional scale is important for the development of national climate change policy. Global climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are used to examine the time at which an anthropogenic influence becomes detectable in extreme precipitation over China and the change in probability of extreme precipitation with certain magnitudes when the changes are detectable. Anthropogenic influence is not significantly detected over China in the observational record or simulations from 1961 to 2012 based on the test of field significance. Simulations indicate that such change would become detectable in the future by around 2035. Large changes would already manifest by the time of signal detection; for example, extreme precipitation events that occur on average once every 20, 50, and 100 years in current (1986–2005) climate would reduce to about 15, 34, and 63 years on average by the time of detection around 2035.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".