Epidemiological and genomic determinants of tuberculosis outbreaks in First Nations communities in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Canada, tuberculosis disproportionately affects foreign-born and First Nations populations. Within First Nations’ peoples, a high proportion of cases occur in association with outbreaks. Tuberculosis transmission in the context of outbreaks is thought to result from the convergence of several factors including characteristics of the cases, contacts, the environment, and the pathogen. We examined the epidemiological and genomic determinants of two well-characterized tuberculosis outbreaks attributed to two super-spreaders among First Nations in the province of Alberta. These outbreaks were associated with two distinct DNA fingerprints (restriction fragment-length polymorphisms or RFLPs 0.0142 and 0.0728). We compared outbreak isolates with endemic isolates not spatio-temporarily linked to outbreak cases. We extracted epidemiological variables pertaining to tuberculosis cases and contacts from individual public health records and the provincial tuberculosis registry. We conducted group analyses using parametric and non-parametric statistical tests. We carried out whole-genome sequencing and bioinformatic analysis using validated protocols. We observed differences between outbreak and endemic groups in the mean number of total and child-aged contacts and the number of contacts with new positive and converted tuberculin skin tests in all group comparisons (p < 0.05). Differences were also detected in the proportion of cases with cavitation on a chest radiograph and the mean number of close contacts in selected group comparisons (p < 0.02). A phylogenetic network analysis of whole-genome sequencing data indicated that most outbreak and endemic strains were closely related to the source case for the 0.0142 fingerprint. For the 0.0728 fingerprint, the source case haplotype was circulating among endemic cases prior to the outbreak. Genetic and temporal distances were not correlated for either RFLP 0.0142 (r2 = − 0.05) or RFLP 0.0728 (r2 = 0.09) when all isolates were analyzed. We found no evidence that endemic strains acquired mutations resulting in their emergence in outbreak form. We conclude that the propagation of these outbreaks was likely driven by the combination of characteristics of the source cases, contacts, and the environment. The role of whole-genome sequencing in understanding mycobacterial evolution and in assisting public health authorities in conducting contact investigations and managing outbreaks is important and expected to grow in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".