eTumorRisk, an algorithm predicts cancer risk based on comutated gene networks in an individual’s germline genome
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Early cancer detection has potentials to reduce cancer burden. A prior identification of the high-risk population of cancer will facilitate cancer early detection. Traditionally, cancer predisposition genes such as BRCA1/2 have been used for identifying high-risk population of developing breast and ovarian cancers. However, such high-risk genes have only a few. Moreover, the complexity of cancer hints multiple genes involved but also prevents from identifying such predictors for predicting high-risk subpopulation. Therefore, we asked if the germline genomes could be used to identify high-risk cancer population. So far, none of such predictive models has been developed. Here, by analyzing of the germline genomes of 3,090 cancer patients representing 12 common cancer types and 25,701 non-cancer individuals, we discovered significantly differential co-mutated gene pairs between cancer and non-cancer groups, and even between cancer types. Based on these findings, we developed a network-based algorithm, eTumorRisk, which enables to predict individuals’ cancer risk of six genetic-dominant cancers including breast, colon, brain, leukemia, ovarian and endometrial cancers with the prediction accuracies of 74.1-91.7% and have 1-3 false-negatives out of the validating samples (n=14,701). The eTumorRisk which has a very low false-negative rate might be useful in screening of general population for identifying high-risk cancer population.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".