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Record W2886727873

What’s Up with the Unemployment Rate?

2011· article· en· W2886727873 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Murat Tasci, Mary Zenker

Bibliographic record

VenueEconomic Trends · 2011
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicLabor market dynamics and wage inequality
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPercentage pointUnemploymentUnemployment rateEconomicsQuarter (Canadian coin)FellDemographic economicsCurrent Population SurveyLabour economicsDemographyGeographyPopulationEconomic growthSociologyCartography
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The unemployment rate jumped back to 9 percent in April, after declining a full 1 percentage point between November 2010 and March. Both the decline and the increase came as a surprise to many. Though signs of a recovery had appeared in the aggregate economy as early as the second quarter of 2009, the unemployment rate had stayed persistently high, above 9 percent, for more than 20 months. Then over the course of four months, the rate unexpectedly fell 1 percentage point, reflecting both an increase in household employment and a reduction in labor force participation. Most recently, the rate jumped up by 0.2 percentage point in April. Hence, over the past five months employment (as measured in the Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey) has increased by close to 800,000, while the number of unemployed workers has declined by about 1.3 million.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.827
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0040.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.046
GPT teacher head0.223
Teacher spread0.177 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2011
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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