Geodetically Inferred Locking State of the Cascadia Megathrust Based on a Viscoelastic Earth Model
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In a viscoelastic Earth, stresses slowly built up due to fault locking are relaxed concurrently during the entire interseismic period. This interseismic stress relaxation causes crustal deformation much farther away from the locked fault than can be explained using elastic models that neglect the relaxation. Here we develop a viscoelastic geodetic inversion model to address this problem at Cascadia. We invert ~500 horizontal velocity vectors based on continuous and campaign geodetic measurements over the past two decades. Ambiguities arising from long‐term rotation of upper‐plate crustal blocks are addressed by test‐correcting the geodetic velocities with two different block‐motion models. Fault back slip (i.e., slip deficit) Green's functions are derived using a Maxwell viscoelastic finite element model with realistic subduction zone structure and megathrust geometry. The preferred model features a narrow and shallow megathrust locked zone, consistent with earlier thermorheological reasoning. For an elastic model to fit the data to the same fidelity, megathrust locking has to extend to much greater depths. However, even with the viscoelastic model, the land‐based geodetic data still cannot resolve whether there is some creep (incomplete locking) in the shallowest part of the megathrust far offshore. Neither can the land data fully resolve along‐strike variations of the locking state. These ambiguities can be resolved only when adequate seafloor geodetic data are obtained.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it