Confidence in predicted position error explains saccadic decisions during pursuit
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A fundamental problem in motor control is the coordination of complementary movement types to achieve a common goal. As a common example, humans view moving objects through coordinated pursuit and saccadic eye movements. Pursuit is initiated and continuously controlled by retinal image velocity. During pursuit, eye position may lag behind the target. This can be compensated by the discrete execution of a catch-up saccade. The decision to trigger a saccade is influenced by both position and velocity errors and the timing of saccades can be highly variable. The observed distributions of saccade occurrence and trigger time remain poorly understood and this decision process remains imprecisely quantified. Here we propose a predictive, probabilistic model explaining the decision to trigger saccades during pursuit to foveate moving targets. In this model, expected position error and its associated uncertainty are predicted through Bayesian inference across noisy, delayed sensory observations (Kalman filtering). This probabilistic prediction is used to estimate the confidence that a saccade is needed (quantified through log-probability ratio), triggering a saccade upon accumulating to a fixed threshold. The model qualitatively explains behavioural observations on the probability of occurrence and trigger time distributions of saccades during pursuit over a range of target motion trajectories. Furthermore, this model makes novel predictions about the influence of sensory uncertainty and target motion parameters on saccade decisions. We suggest that this predictive, confidence-based decision making strategy represents a fundamental principle for the probabilistic neural control of coordinated movements. New & Noteworthy This is the first stochastic dynamical systems model of pursuit-saccade coordination accounting for noise and delays in the sensorimotor system. The model uses Bayesian inference to predictively estimate visual motion, triggering saccades when confidence in predicted position error accumulates to a threshold. This model explains saccade probability and trigger time distributions across target trajectories and makes novel predictions about the influence of sensory uncertainty in saccade decisions during pursuit.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".