Northeast United States growing season moisture conditions: Associations with a North American mid‐tropospheric wave train
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Palmer Drought Severity Index is examined in the Northeast United States during the May–September growing seasons of 1950–2016, seeking to better understand the role of atmospheric circulation in moisture variability. Moist conditions for the Northeast are associated with the development of a mid‐tropospheric wave train over the United States, with enhanced ridging over the west, a trough over the Ohio Valley, and ridging over the Atlantic Ocean east of Newfoundland that favours enhanced uplift, precipitation, and southeasterly flow at the surface in the Northeast. A scalar representation of the wave train, a Summer Atmospheric Drought Index (SADI), is developed and robustly validated as a strong indicator of the Northeast moisture conditions. The SADI mid‐tropospheric wave train is the second largest mode of 500 hPa height variability over the North American sector from 1950–2016, and has an increasing trend such that the ridge‐trough‐ridge pattern is more prevalent and/or has become more enhanced with time. The wave train pattern has a significant and positive relationship to the phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This indicates that when the AO and NAO indices are positive, the wave train pattern favours the ridge‐trough‐ridge configuration over North America, and can lead to moist conditions in the Northeast. The opposite pathway is also valid and can lead to dry conditions in the Northeast. This pathway provides a physical link between Northeast moisture conditions and global‐scale variability, improving the understanding of atmospheric influences on regional drought and excessive moisture conditions.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".