Holocene centennial to millennial shifts in North-Atlantic storminess and ocean dynamics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The forcing mechanisms responsible for centennial to millennial variability of mid-latitude storminess are still poorly understood. On decadal scales, the present-day geographic variability of North-Atlantic storminess responds to latitudinal shifts of the North-Atlantic westerly wind-belt under the prime control of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An equivalent mechanism operating at centennial to millennial time scales during the Holocene is still to be ascertained, especially owing to the lack of high-resolution and continuous records of past-storminess extending far enough in time. Here we present a reconstruction of past storminess activity based on a high-resolution record of wind-blown sand retrieved from a near-coastal wetland. Our record extends back to ca. 10,000 B.P. and allows to continuously document fluctuations in the frequency of Holocene storm-force winds at our study-site at a mean high temporal resolution of 40 years. Large similarities between our record and palaeo-oceanographic records of Holocene climate changes in the North-Atlantic suggest that our past-storminess record reproduces a signal of significance for the North-Eastern Atlantic realm. We find that Holocene North-Atlantic storminess is dominated by robust millennial (≈2,500-year) to centennial (≈400 and 200-year) periodicities. These changes in storminess were accompanied by changes in the precipitation regimes over northern Europe, evidencing large-scale shifts in the latitudinal positions of the Atlantic westerlies akin to present-day NAO patterns. We propose that these shifts originate from changes in the position and extent of the Azores high-pressure system and Polar vortex, as supported by climate model simulations. Finally, we demonstrate that enhanced zonal storminess activity over the North-Atlantic was the driver of centennial-scale changes in North-Atlantic oceanic circulation, while ocean dynamics most likely influenced back the atmospheric circulation at millennial time-scales. This may vouch for the instrumental role played by North-Atlantic storminess in triggering abrupt climate change at centennial scales during the Holocene.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".