Assessing the resilience of stochastic dynamic systems under partial observability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Resilience is a property of major interest for the design and analysis of generic complex systems. A system is resilient if it can adjust in response to disruptive shocks, and still provide the services it was designed for, without interruptions. In this work, we adapt a formal definition of resilience for constraint-based systems to a probabilistic framework derived from hidden Markov models. This allows us to more realistically model the stochastic evolution and partial observability of many complex real-world environments. Within this framework, we propose an efficient and exact algorithm for the inference queries required to construct generic property checking. We show that the time complexity of this algorithm is on par with other state-of-the-art inference queries for similar frameworks (that is, linear with respect to the time horizon). We also provide considerations on the specific complexity of the probabilistic checking of resilience and its connected properties, with particular focus on resistance. To demonstrate the flexibility of our approach and to evaluate its performance, we examine it in four qualitative and quantitative example scenarios: (1) disaster management and damage assessment; (2) macroeconomics; (3) self-aware, reconfigurable computing for aerospace applications; and (4) connectivity maintenance in robotic swarms.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.045 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".